Time-Varying Relation between Oil Shocks and European Stock Market Returns
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper considers a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model to analyze the varying impact of three types structural oil shocks (the supply-side shock, aggregate demand and oil-specific shock) on European stock market since 1990s. Our findings show that heterogeneously influence returns in euro area, this considerably changes over time during period considered. First, an unexpected increase supply appears exert positive but generally declining effect before Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2007–2009, which descends into negative values after GFC. Second, unanticipated triggers area. However, from 2003 2005, responded negatively, could be attributed so-called growth-retarding effect. Third, instigates response pre-GFC (considering 4–5 months shock), although thereafter. Interestingly, irrespective origin price fluctuations, increases are associated with signals greater degree financialization.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of risk and financial management
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['1911-8074', '1911-8066']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16030174